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【关键词】First Home Buyers
【报告格式】 印刷版/电子版
【交付方式】 特快专递/E-MAIL
【释放日期】 2006年8月
【报告页数】 页
【报告字数】 字
【图表数量】 个
【报告价格】 印刷版：元 电子版:25000元 印刷＋电子：元
【其它信息】
【订购热线】 010-58613285 58613275 网上订购 邮件订购
Introduction
The recent decline in property price growth has aroused interest by first home buyers in entering the Australian property market. It is crucial for serious mortgage providers to capture this market. This report analyses data and builds a picture of the mortgage market and specifically, the role of first home buyers in this space. The report analyses innovative techniques used around the world.
Scope
This report analyses data from several different sources to build the first time buyers market in the context of the mortgage market in Australia
This report analyses the success of products already in the market for first time buyers in . It also includes products about to be launched.
The report concludes with forecasts of lending commitments to FTB to 2010. This data is presented on a national and state/territory basis.
Report Highlights
In terms of volumes, there was a peak of AUS$24.4 billion in 2005, up from AUS$18.2 billion and AUS$17.1 billion in 2004 and 2003 respectively. Hence, the increased level of FTB lending has been a major contributor to the recent growth in the owner-occupied mortgage market.
Shared appreciation mortgages significantly improve the affordability for property buyers. These loans allow people to borrow more and choose properties that were previously out of reach. However, shared appreciation mortgages had a negative impact in overseas markets and lenders will have to work hard to deflect negative international experiences.
Reasons to Purchase
Detailed analysis on housing lending commitments in Australia from several sources
Detailed analysis of the products available to first time buyers including products that are to be launched in 2006
Provides forecasted lending commitments for Australia and also each state/territory up to 2010
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 8
Scope 8
Who is the target reader? 8
How to use this report 8
CHAPTER 2 MARKET CONTEXT 10
How first time buyers have cushioned the property market 10
First time buyers pushed the mortgage market's recovery over the last year 10
Lending commitment volumes have fluctuated over the 2001-2005 period 11
The recovery seen in 2005 reflects the return of first time buyers 12
The average loan size gap between first time buyers and other borrowers has shrunk 13
Comparing the average size of loans for first time buyers to all other borrowers reveals a closing of the gap between the two groups 13
Over the 2001-2005 period the average loan size gap between FTBs and non-FTBs was at its widest in 2001 14
Tasmania had the highest growth rate for the average loan size for first time buyers at 19.5% compounded annually over the 2001-2005 period 15
Property price growth for first time buyers over the 2001-2005 period was higher than for other borrowers in the market 16
The increasing proportion of first time buyers in recent years 17
Over the 2001-2005 period, the growth rate for the number of dwellings financed for first time buyers has decreased signficantly from the long term trend 17
The Northern Territory had the strongest growth rate of 6.1% for the number of dwellings financed over 1992-2005 period 18
Over the 2001-2005 period, it was again the Northern Territory that had the strongest average growth at 17.5% 19
Strong growth in the Northern Territory is in response to the HomeNorth scheme introduced by the government 19
The financial position of first time buyers and its flow on effects to the affordability index 20
Both mean and disposable income' have been increasing over the 2001-2005 period 21
The proportion of disposable income to household income is below the long term average 21
The percentage of monthly repayments to monthly income is high by historic standards 21
The affordability index has fluctuated over the 1990-2005 period 22
Over the 2001-2005 period, affordability for first time buyers has been declining at an average annual rate of 6.7% 22
All states except for Western Australia saw an increase in housing affordability over 2005 23
CHAPTER 3 COMPETITOR AND PRODUCT OVERVIEW 25
Products based on family support 25
Those products already in the market 25
Those products that are new to the market 26
ANZ Family Guarantee 26
RAMS Fast Track 27
Resi BreakTHRU Home Loan 27
Westpac's No Deposit? No Problem? 28
These products present unique issues to the market 28
Consumer groups are voicing concerns for family backed mortgage products 29
Parents that are 'baby boomers' continue their lifestyle through retirement 29
The honeymoon loan 30
Arab Bank offers the lowest introductory rate at 4.99% 30
The 'top five' banks all offer honeymoon mortgage products 31
These products are very suitable for first time buyers 31
Mortgage products that lend 100% of the purchase price 31
Most providers offering loans for 100% of the property price are specialist mortgage providers 32
There are varing interest rates and associated costs with 100% mortgage products 32
The general consensus is that these products are expensive for the consumer and risky for the lender 33
Mortgage products that lend in excess of 100% of the purchase price 34
Home Partners 34
Wizard's Rent Buster Plus 34
We consider these products very risky to first time buyers 35
Shared equity mortgages enter the market 35
Shared equity lending as a solution to the marginalisation of first time buyers has support from the government 35
We are aware of there are three shared appreciation mortgage products that are either available or are currently being developed for the Australian market 36
Affiance 36
Rismark International 37
Greenway Capital 38
The possible drawbacks of shared equity mortgages 38
While shared appreciation mortgages do improve housing affordability there are are other factors that potential borrowers need to be aware of 38
First time buyers' and the First Home Owner's Grant 39
The First Home Owners Grant cannot take much blame for the rapid house price growth 40
Innovations in the UK mortgage market 40
Graduate mortgages 41
Scottish Widows Graduate Mortgage 41
HSBC's Graduate Mortgage 41
CHAPTER 4 FORECASTING THE FIRST TIME BUYERS MARKET 43
Lending commitments to the first time buyers market, 2006-2010 43
Macroeconomic variables underlying the forecasting model 43
Total lending commitments for first time buyers will reach AUS$31.5 billion by 2010 44
The average loan size for FTBs will rise to AUS$270,000 by 2010 reflecting sustainable house price growth rate 45
The number of dwellings financed for first time buyers will reach 116,700 by 2010 45
Lending commitment forecasts for first time buyers by states and territories in Australia, 2006-2010 46
Lending commitments for first time buyers in New South Wales are expected to rise to AUS$11.2 billion by 2010 46
First time buyers in Victoria are expected to increase lending commitments to AUS$8.1 billion by 2010 47
Queensland is expected to see the highest average annual growth rate over the 2006-2010 period in lending commitments 47
Western Australia's growth is expected to slow from its 2005 rates 47
The increased affordability experienced in South Australia over 2005 is to be reflected in increased lending commitments 48
By 2010 lending commitments for first time buyers in Tasmania are expected to rise to AUS$311 million 48
Lending commitments for FTBs in the Northern Territory are expected to grow by 4.9% compounded annually over the 2006-2010 period 48
Despite Australian Capital Territory's boost in affordability, growth in lending commitments for first time buyers will remain low 49
APPENDIX 51
Supplementary data 51
Definitions 56
AAGR 56
Balances outstanding 56
CAGR 56
Cash rate target 56
Gross advances 56
Lending commitments 56
Research methodology 57
Primary research 57
Secondary research 57
Future readings 57
Current publications 57
Future publications 57
Relevant links 58
Custom research capabilities 58
Asia Pacific SPP writing team 60
How to contact experts in your industry 60
List of Tables
Table 1: Western Australia saw the largest decline in affordability over the year ending December 2005 24
Table 2: The underlying macroeconomic variables suppporting forecasting 44
Table 3: Lending commitments for housing in the Australian mortgage market, 2001-2005 51
Table 4: Lending commitments for owner-occupied housing by FTBs and non-FTBs, 2001-2005 51
Table 5: The average loan size for FTBs and non-FTBs, 2001-2005 period 51
Table 6: The average size of loans for Australian states/territories, 2001-2005 52
Table 7: Median house price for first time buyers, 1990-2005 52
Table 8: The number of dwellings financed by first time buyers and other borrowers, 2001-2005 53
Table 9: The number of dwellings financed for first time buyers, 2001-2005 53
Table 10: The proportion of total repayments to total income, 1990-2005 54
Table 11: The affordability index, 1990-2005 54
Table 12: Forecasted lending commitments, 2006-2010 55 Table 13: Forecasted lending commitments by state/territory, 2006-2010 55
List of Figures
Figure 1: Lending commitments for the whole mortgage market have grown over the 2001-2005 period by 13.5% compounded annually 11
Figure 2: FTBs have increased as a proportion of total owner-occupied lending to 20.4% by the end of 2005 13
Figure 3: The average loan size gap between FTBs and non-FTBs has closed as a result of higher property prices 14
Figure 4: The average loan size gap between FTBs and non-FTBs was at its widest in 2001 and has since diminished to AUS$600 15
Figure 5: The average loan size for FTBs has grown fastest for Tasmania over 2001-2005 period 16
Figure 6: The proportion of dwellings financed for FTBs rose to 17.0% in 2005, up from 14.6% in 2004 18
Figure 7: The Northern Territory had the strongest average annual growth rate for the number of dwellings financed for FTBs over the 2001-2005 period while Queensland had the next highest rate 20
Figure 8: The proportion of repayments to average mean household income for FTBs is 28.7%, the highest average in any year 22
Figure 9: The affordability index for FTBs has improved slightly over the 2004-2005 period by 0.1% 23
Figure 10: Total lending commitments for FTBs will reach AUS$31.5 billion 45
Figure 11: New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland are expected to have the highest growth rates over the 2006-2010 period 50
Figure 12: Core consulting capabilities 59 |
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